Page 30 - Book of Abstracts 2020

Anti COVID-19 #5 The economics of testing for COVID-19: beware of greater damage than benefit March 2020
IDEA anti COVID-19 # 5
The economics of testing for COVID-19:
beware of greater damage than benefit
beware of greater damage than benefit1 MARCH 2020
The economics of te
IDEA anti COVID-19 # 5
MARCH 2020
1
or COVID-19:
sting f
2
Jan Kulveit, Jakub Steiner
Summary
Jan Kulveit, 2 Jakub Steiner3
• There are limited numbers of tests for COVID-19, especially of the more precise type
known as PCR tests. That means they must be used as efficiently as possible, in terms
of which people are tested. Efficiency in the use of these tests is not only a matter
3
Summary
of revealing how many people are infected, but also has to do with the potential ability of those tested to spread the infection further, which a positive test result can help to
• There are limited numbers of tests for COVID-19, especially of the more precise type prevent. The algorithms by which the short supply of COVID tests is assigned must
known as PCR tests. That means they must be used as efficiently as possible, in terms therefore be grounded in the social, rather than individual benefits of testing. People
of which people are tested. Efficiency in the use of these tests is not only a matter whose testing brings maximum social benefit should be given priority.
of revealing how many people are infected, but also has to do with the potential ability
• The social benefit of testing a particular person is calculated primarily in terms of the of those tested to spread the infection further, which a positive test result can help to
apriori likelihood (rough estimation) of that person being infected, based prevent. The algorithms by which the short supply of COVID tests is assigned must
on information about where they live and their lifestyle. The second important criterion therefore be grounded in the social, rather than individual benefits of testing. People
is that individual’s epidemiological significance, which is an indication of how much the whose testing brings maximum social benefit should be given priority.
individual in questions comes into contact with, and is likely to come into further contact
• The social benefit of testing a particular person is calculated primarily in terms of the with other at-risk people. This can also be established by asking pertinent questions to
1 apriori likelihood (rough estimation) of that person being infected, based This study represents the authors’ own views and not the official position of the Czech Academy of Sciences’ Economics the individual themselves, complemented if desired by a survey in the place where they
Institute nor of the Charles University Centre for Economic Research and Graduate Education (CERGE). We are grateful to
on information about where they live and their lifestyle. The second important criterion
live.
the following people for helpful comments on the working version of the text: Pavel Boguský, Petr Chytil, Marek Kapička
andDiasnitehlMatüinnicdhi.vAindyuinaalc’scuerpaciideseomreiorrlorsgiacrealthseigauntihfoircsa’nrecspeo,nwsihbiilcithy.iTsheasntuidnydwicasaptirodnucoefdhwoitwhsmupupocrhtftrhome
th•e CzAeclhthAocaudgemhyouf Srcienscteims asatpiaortnosf iotsfAtVh2e1 SstroacteigaylpbroegnraemfimteoafndteEsxtpienrigenatiraeFobuandsaetdiono. n imprecise and
2
individual in questions comes into contact with, and is likely to come into further contact
incomplete data, the algorithm for allocating the limited numbers of PCR tests we have
3 CERGE-EI and University of Zurich, jakub.steiner@cerge-ei.cz
1 Thistshtuadty irsepbreasesnetds thoenauttheorms’ oiwsnmvieowrseansdocnioatltlhye oefficeicaltipvoesittiohnaonf tbhelaCnzekcehtAucasdemoyfotfhSecimencefos’rEctoensotminicgs
Institute nor of the Charles University Centre for Economic Research and Graduate Education (CERGE). We are grateful to anyone suspected of having contracted COVID-19. The greatest social benefit of testing the following people for helpful comments on the working v1ersion of the text: Pavel Boguský, Petr Chytil, Marek Kapička
and Dcanoimel eMsünfricohm. Anidy einnactcifuyrainciges tohr errinorfseacrteiothne aiunthpoerso’ prelsepownshiboilsitey.lTehvelstoudfyswoacsiaprloidnutcedrawcithiosnupipsorht ifgrohm,
the Czech Academy of Sciences as part of its AV21 Strategy programme and Experientia Foundation.
during the phase of the infection in which they do not yet have any symptoms; that is, in
3 CERGE-EI and University of Zurich, jakub.steiner@cerge-ei.cz
• When evaluating the results of any test it is necessary to bear in mind that no test is ever
2 Oxford University, jk@ks.cz so-called superspreaders.
1
entirely precise (reliable). Although PCR tests are very precise in laboratory conditions,
BACK TO CONTENTS
28
errors can occur when samples are collected in the field, for example through poor sample handling. Our interpretation of the test result is then sensitive to the a priori
Oxford University, jk@ks.cz